(cont'd from previous post)

The dificulty arises when we we have to determine whether a particular piece of data is at the extreme end of the range, or is a chance event, an outlier, which we can safely discard.  To translate: even with the abilty to perform complex statistical calculations on Jo, it would be near-impossible to determine whether her physique is down to her being unusually genetically-able to build muscle naturally, or whether she represents an outlier, in other words, she is taking steroids.   

As we cannot do this, our best effort is to make a considered judgement based on the evidence we have.  In doing so, I consider it highly likely that she is natural.  My reasons for this are as follows:

1.  Her progress has been slow and steady, rather than exhibiting dramatic gains followed by stagnation as is often seen with steroid use.

2.  The risk to her reputation if found-out is high, given her anti-drugs stance.

3.  She has contested many shows in which drug-testing has been used.  Despite the weakness of such tests, simple statistics tell us that, whilst the odds of her passing one test whilst on steroids is fairly high, the odds of her passing many tests without being found-out diminishes rapidly.

4.  She displays none of the signs of steroid use, and her appearance has changed over the years only to the extent that I would expect to be due to ageing.  She has a smooth voice, clear skin, shows little or no sign of "roid jaw", nose changes, receding hairline or acne.

Sorry, I didn't make myself clear.  I agree that rapid improvements are not always seen in steroid use, just that they are often present because athletes use excessive cycles, and that this seems to me to be another factor in why I believe she is clean.  I accept that it is unlikely that any one FBBer will be able to grow such musculature naturally, however I argue that many women build muscles around the world and so it's quite likely that one finds that she is able to do so.

If I didn't know better, I'd almost say they must be morphed!  Pound-for-pound, Johanna must be the Bicep Queen!